Start with the Live Board
Use the newest admitted event or move between events with Newer and Older. The page shows OilBoard’s current admitted events and fails closed when data are unavailable; it does not silently substitute synthetic data.
STAKEHOLDER QUICK START
OilBoard User Guide
OilBoard monitors oil-relevant Polymarket contracts and selected news sources, then places market repricing and available evidence on one GMT timeline. It helps users decide what deserves further research; it is not a trade recommendation or an oil-price forecast.
Review an Alert
Read the contract question, the probability-point move and the observation window. A rapid move says expectations changed; it does not prove what caused the change.
Check the Trader Timeline
The Trader Timeline orders monitored posts, articles, the contract move and the alert clock on one GMT basis. “Candidate” means relevant context to review, not verified causation.
Assess Trading Activity
Use shares, trades, wallet count and largest-wallet concentration to judge participation. Concentrated activity should receive less weight than broad participation.
Read the Oil Interpretation
Bullish or Bearish is an initial event-context judgment based on the contract wording and its mapped oil mechanism. It is not a standalone crude-price call.
Open the Evidence
View evidence opens the selected event’s stored chronology and limitations. Open on Polymarket verifies the underlying contract question and market.
RESEARCH TOOLS
Use AI after checking the evidence
Trader Agent · Board
Use the Board scope for questions about the current board state, contract moves and participation facts.
Trader Agent · Selected Case
Use the Selected Case scope for the exact pinned alert and its bounded stored evidence. Changing events resets this case conversation; the Board conversation stays separate.
Verify citations
Treat answers as assisted research summaries. Open cited evidence on the main board and verify important claims against the stored records.
RAPID ALERT SCREENER
Screen stored alerts without changing admission
Rapid Alert Screener filters and sorts query all rapid-move alerts in OilBoard’s stored database, including alerts on inactive or resolved contracts. Minimum move, provider-reported shares, trades and wallets—or maximum largest-wallet concentration—run before the existing trader-admission check. Results show whether each raw alert passed admission. The controls do not change the detector, admission rules, selected Oil Bias, evidence, ranking, stored records or future alerts.
Time convention
Stakeholder-facing event and evidence clocks are shown in GMT. A missing or timezone-naive timestamp is treated as unavailable rather than guessed.
HOW TO USE THE OUTPUT RESPONSIBLY
Three checks before escalating an event
- Materiality: Is the move and participation large enough to deserve attention?
- Evidence: Do multiple genuinely independent sources report the same underlying event, or are they relays of one report?
- Oil connection: Is the supply, shipping, policy or demand mechanism explicit and relevant to the contract wording?
OilBoard does not establish complete news coverage, causal attribution, repeatable predictive edge or future crude-price performance.