—

See case insight ↓ Open on Polymarket ↗ Open evidence link

REAL CASE LIBRARY

POLYMARKET / CONTRACT PATH

AWAITING ALERTLOADING

ALERT TIME -- --- ---- · --:--:-- GMT Clock unavailable

--.--

-- observed move

WINDOW HIGH--

WINDOW LOW--

Loading alert context…

HYPERLIQUID · SEPARATE RESEARCH VIEW · STORED DATA ONLY

Same-window research view

WTI and Brent supplemental, descriptive co-movement only for the exact stored detector window. Not an official CME/ICE benchmark.

Select a stored alert to check coverage.

WHAT HAPPENED, IN ORDER

TRADER TIMELINE FULL GMT CLOCKS

ANCHOR · ALERT TIME

REPORTING CROSS-CHECK

HORMUZ · ALERT 1414 · SELECTED CASE INSIGHT

WHAT IT MEANS FOR OIL

CURRENT READLower closure probability implies less upward pressure from disruption risk; bearish event context.

EVENT Yes probability fell for zero Hormuz transit
MECHANISM Expected shipping-disruption risk eased
MARKET IMPLICATION Lower closure probability implies less upward pressure from disruption risk; bearish event context
HORIZON Near term; event dependent
CONFIDENCE Reviewed map; concentrated tape; bounded evidence; derivatives not joined
INVALIDATION Renewed blockage, military escalation, or thin-market distortion
CLAIM CEILING Not causation, an oil forecast, price target, or trade recommendation.

IRAN BLOCKADE · ALERT 2039 · SELECTED CASE INSIGHT

WHAT IT MEANS FOR OIL

CURRENT READBroader participation than Alert 1414, but indirect pre-alert context and an endpoints-only path limit confidence; bearish event context.

EVENT Yes probability rose 6.0pp on the contract asking whether the U.S. would announce an end to the Iranian blockade
MECHANISM Expected blockade-related shipping and supply risk eased
MARKET IMPLICATION Lower blockade risk implies less upward pressure from disruption risk; bearish event context
HORIZON Persistence is not scorable because no evaluation checkpoint timestamp is stored; the full intrawindow path was not stored
CONFIDENCE Broader participation than Alert 1414; pre-alert context was indirect; endpoints-only path
INVALIDATION Blockade persistence or escalation, move reversal, or evidence unrelated to the contract
CLAIM CEILING Not causation, an oil forecast, price target, or trade recommendation.

SECONDARY REFERENCE · ON DEMAND

BROADER MARKET CONTEXT

Reference views across the active tracked watchlist; they are not joined to the selected event.

CONTRACT ACTIVITY RESEARCH

Newly discovered contracts, reported share-volume increases and exact-trade outliers where the stored data supports them.

Display-only observations; no detector or ranking changes.

PRICE MOVERS

Observed probability changes across tracked contracts.

These are contract-probability moves, not oil-price moves or forecasts.

Price is the order-book midpoint for Yes (or Up in Up/Down contracts); Polymarket's Buy button can show a higher ask across the spread.
Contracts clear at least 1,000 reported shares in the trailing 24h, falling back to 25,000 lifetime reported shares when no 24h figure is available.
Values are reported shares, not dollars or cash approximations.
5m, 15m and 1h keep the 1pp display floor.

SUPPLEMENTAL · 24/7 REFERENCE · INDEPENDENT OF THE SELECTED EVENT

Supplemental 24/7 oil reference

Hyperliquid oil perpetuals · supplemental reference, not official CME/ICE benchmark prices.

Provider price units and contract semantics remain under verification.

Venue observations captured for context only. They are not joined to the selected event and are not used to compute Oil Bias, confidence or signal quality. They do not confirm, validate or explain any alert.

Loading supplemental reference…

WTI

xyz:CL

Provider mark —

BID–ASK RANGE —

Provider price units and contract semantics remain under verification.

OBSERVED · GMT: —
PROVIDER · GMT: —
AGE: —

Recent captured provider marks · 24h · gaps not connected

No gaps in this view

—

Brent

xyz:BRENTOIL

Provider mark —

BID–ASK RANGE —

Provider price units and contract semantics remain under verification.

OBSERVED · GMT: —
PROVIDER · GMT: —
AGE: —

Recent captured provider marks · 24h · gaps not connected

No gaps in this view

—

MONITORED INFORMATION · ON DEMAND

X / WSJ CONTEXT

Monitored information for situational awareness. These feeds are not joined to the selected event and do not explain why oil moved.